Russia is escalating its attacks on Europe. The risk of a misstep is growing every day

It is a strategy built around a contradiction. Russia’s attacks on Europe aim to make war feel closer, without starting it. To provoke, without forcing a response. To alarm, without causing a real change in behavior.

Moscow has palpably escalated its “grey-zone” conflict with NATO in Europe in the past week. Since late Sunday, a railway on which top former Western officials were traveling has been attacked by a Russian drone, another drone of likely Russian origin has been shot down in Lithuania, a third has washed up on Polish shores, a Danish helicopter has narrowly been missed by a Russian flare, and Dutch trains have been paralyzed by an as-yet unclaimed act of sabotage.